Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health · School of Medicine
We build policy-facing models of infectious disease dynamics, combining local data, simulation, and epidemiologic inference to support public health decisions in the United States.
Our work connects mechanistic modeling with surveillance, prevention, and treatment questions. The common thread is practical: estimating how interventions and disruptions change outcomes across real populations and places.
City, state, and population-specific data rather than one national average.
Plausible futures for continuation, interruption, funding, and targeted intervention.
Published evidence and public tools for researchers, policymakers, clinicians, and health departments.
Recent model results
Recent JHEEM analyses estimate how federal HIV program disruptions could alter incidence by place. The figure below curates headline geographic findings from those papers.
NBC News · September 2025
Dr. Anthony Fojo discusses how eliminating the CDC's HIV-prevention division could disrupt critical functions, with models projecting over 213,000 additional infections through 2030.
High-burden metropolitan areas
If federal Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program funding were to end, how many additional HIV infections would follow in the country’s 31 highest-burden metropolitan areas?
additional infections
Projected across 31 high-burden metros from 2025 to 2030.
